NBER 经济 全文
This paper studies whether and how distressed regions can recover from industrial decline. We exploit differences in access to an increasingly thriving Luxembourg labor market for neighboring residents of the French…
NBER 经济 全文
This chapter examines the consequences of zero-sum environments for cultural change, innovation, and long-term economic growth. We introduce innovation into the framework developed by Bergeron et al. (forthcoming), in…
NBER 经济 全文
Do transportation disruptions affect aggregate outcomes? We develop a tractable model of the transportation sector to study its impact on prices and international trade. By casting maritime transportation as a queueing…
NBER 经济 全文
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a system of ocean currents that plays a key role in regulating global climate, including moderating temperatures in Europe and the North Atlantic. Its potential…
NBER 经济 全文
Occupation choice is a key determinant of economic mobility. This paper studies how childhood neighbors influence occupational choices and later-life earnings. Using linked historical U.S. census records for over six…
NBER 经济 全文
As of 2026, humanity is likely below replacement fertility. That has never happened before, not in wars or pandemics. But the real surprise is that the fall has been concentrated in low- and middle-income countries and…
NBER 经济 全文
We study the macroeconomic and trade-policy implications of disruptions to U.S.-bound shipping routes. Standard models treat them as iceberg-cost shocks, conflating the shock with the response to it. Using satellite…
NBER 经济 全文
Time fixed effects are not a general-equilibrium control. In network economies, aggregate shocks do not enter firm outcomes uniformly: they propagate through equilibrium prices, costs, and demand, leaving a residual…
NBER 经济 全文
Deep learning is increasingly presented in economics as a new paradigm for solving dynamic models, superseding the classical projection methods of numerical economics. We argue that this dichotomy rests on a…
NBER 经济 全文
We construct a firm-year panel of income-tax rate reconciliations from annual 10-K filings of public companies to study the effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) on U.S. multinational profit shifting. These…
NBER 经济 全文
This paper develops a Beveridgean model of the Phillips curve. While the New Keynesian Phillips curve is based on monopolistic pricing under price-adjustment costs, the Beveridgean Phillips curve is based on…
NBER 经济 全文
Worker effort increases contemporaneous output but may result in injury or burnout. Directing effort away from the workers most exposed to injury would reduce this risk, but information on the exposure is often hidden…
NBER 经济 全文
We study how politics shapes industrial policy through two paradigmatic twentieth-century cases: the Cassa per il Mezzogiorno in Italy (1950–1984) and Kennedy's Moonshot in the United States (1961–1972). Drawing on…
NBER 经济 全文
What ignited humanity’s momentous ascent from millennia of stagnation to an era of sustained economic growth? And what are the roots of the vast disparities in the wealth of nations? These enduring mysteries, which have…
NBER 经济 全文
Medical guidelines translate clinical evidence into treatment rules, but the evidence may identify treatment benefits more clearly than harms. We study anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation, combining randomized…
NBER 经济 全文
We examine the causal effect of uncertainty in property rights on housing prices and speculative behavior. We take advantage of a distinctive setting in Shenzhen, China, where neighboring residential units that are…
NBER 经济 全文
The impact of AI on the employment prospects of recent college graduates is hotly debated with no consensus on the magnitude of impacts nor even the timing of those potential impacts. Using CPS microdata, we provide the…
NBER 经济 全文
We study how business cycle fluctuations shape the pace and direction of innovation. Non-green innovation is procyclical, while green innovation is countercyclical, both over the cycle and in response to economic…
NBER 经济 全文
We identify a new channel for regulatory leakage: the “permitting channel”. In many settings, permits lock in the regulatory regime at approval, allowing firms to acquire the option to invest under current rules. Unlike…
NBER 经济 全文
We measure how artificial intelligence (AI) affects the economy through its impact on software engineering productivity. We use information from financial markets to develop a forward-looking measure that is available…
NBER 经济 全文
A large literature examines the economic and health returns to college education. We extend this literature by studying the upward intergenerational effects of children’s education on parental mortality. We exploit…
NBER 经济 全文
Remote work is often touted as a way for disabled and older workers to remain in the labour market. Post-Covid, the incidence of remote work has increased in the UK. Following Bloom et al. (2026), we test the effects of…
NBER 经济 全文
We use the euro cash changeover, a large-scale and purely nominal reform that requires all firms to redenominate posted prices, to distinguish among theories of price rigidity. We develop a nonstationary menu-cost model…
NBER 经济 全文
Emotional intelligence constitutes a key component of human capital, shaped partially by educational materials. Using machine learning and generative AI tools, we examine emotional content in public-school textbooks and…
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