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Learn moreA bold number about SpaceX (SPCX) is getting a lot of attention. Ark Invest's Sam Korus laid out the math on X: Each Starship launch carries about 61 terabits per second of connectivity at $19 million of revenue per Tbps. That works out to about $1 billion per launch. Looking at this, Cathie Wood said that if SpaceX hits Elon Musk's target of 10,000 flights a year, that would mean $10 trillion in annual Starship revenue by 2030. Musk reposted the claim and simply added, "It's not impossible."
Those words should be interpreted carefully. Musk didn't call it a plan or a forecast. The SpaceX CEO just said it wasn't impossible, which is far less concrete — and the gap between the projection and where SpaceX stands today is huge.
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The Math Depends on a Launch Rate That Doesn't Exist Yet
Here's something to help you understand how far SpaceX sits from these claims right now. SpaceX conducted a record 165 Falcon 9 launches in 2025. It's on a similar annual pace in 2026 as well. But the $10 trillion figure assumes 10,000 Starship launches a year. That is roughly 60 times its current rate, and Starship isn't yet in regular service.
There's also another problem with the numbers. SpaceX's revenue per Tbps appears to be slipping. By Korus' own numbers, the figure has fallen from $23 million in 2024 to $19 million in 2025. So, the $1 billion per launch is a starting figure, and that's already sliding down.
This doesn't make the vision worthless. Starlink is already a real business, with Connectivity revenue of $4.3 billion last quarter and improving margins. But the $10 trillion figure circulating on social media is built on a launch rate SpaceX is nowhere near, and even Musk only went as far as to call it "not impossible."
About SpaceX Stock
SpaceX designs, manufactures, launches, and operates products and services built on technologies like rockets and spacecraft. The company operates through three main segments. The Space segment designs, manufactures, and launches reusable rockets to provide access to space, while the Connectivity segment operates a broadband data and communications network powered by Starlink broadband and mobile satellites in low Earth orbit. Finally, the AI segment develops products and services like the Grok AI model, artificial intelligence solutions for consumers and businesses, the X social platform, and the computing infrastructure needed to support AI applications. Founded in 2002, SpaceX is headquartered in Starbase, Texas.
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