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Bitcoin's first weekly close above its 50-week moving average in 45 weeks triggered trend-followers to buy and sparked $300 million in forced short liquidations.
Galaxy Research's Alex Thorn says reclaiming the 50-week average historically confirms bear market lows are in, with Bitcoin already up 29% over 35 days.
The bull signal only holds if Bitcoin closes above $85,000 by September 27, and a drop back below $78,786 would render the September 20 breakout a false one.
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Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) wrapped up the week ending September 20, 2026, at $81,159, finally closing above its 50-week moving average of around $78,786. This marks the first time in 45 weeks that it has finished above this key indicator, according to Galaxy Research.
On September 21, BTC surged to $85,257 before easing to $84,702, reflecting a 5.3% increase in just 24 hours and a 10% rise over the past month. Despite this surge, the Bitcoin price is down about 3% since the start of the year, when it closed at $87,498 on December 31, 2025.
Two main factors contributed to this surge. First, the weekly close was above the 50-week average, which signaled trend followers to take action. The second was a short squeeze, where Bitcoin's rise pushed traders with short positions to cover their losses, resulting in a $300 million buying frenzy within an hour. Here's why Bitcoin is rising and what the Bitcoin price needs to hold to sustain this momentum.
Bitcoin Closed Above Its 50-Week Average for the First Time Since October 2025
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A 50-week moving average reflects the average closing prices over the last 50 weeks and is updated weekly. Traders view consecutive closes above this average as a sign of a strengthening market, while closes below suggest a downturn. Bitcoin last closed above this average in October 2025, coinciding with its record price of $126,198, and has been below it for 45 weeks.
With the close at $81,159 on September 20, Bitcoin was about 3% above this key line. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, noted that historically, reclaiming the 50-week average predicts the end of a bear market. Galaxy also counts a 29% gain over the 35 days to September 21, making the recent close significant.
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