"The roar of the engines does not herald true dominance, but the absolute silence that precedes the strike."
"Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt."
The last decades of silence from the world's leading oil group, OPEC, or its derivative, OPEC+, were always linked to the above-mentioned military strategic statements. However, that is no longer the case: an OPEC+ meeting now moves oil prices before ministers even enter the room. A carefully placed Saudi comment, a Russian signal, or a leaked production proposal can add several dollars to Brent. Traders watched Vienna, Riyadh and Moscow because the producer alliance appeared capable of removing barrels, restoring them and, last but not least, presenting a united political front.
This market power has not disappeared but has become badly diluted. OPEC+ still controls enormous reserves, substantial production and most of the world's immediately available spare capacity. However, at present, the market increasingly resembles an institution reacting to events rather than shaping them. Its public language remains confident, but its internal structure is becoming narrower. Its quota system is more contentious, while its capability to translate announced production policy into actual market control has severely weakened.
The silence from Riyadh and Moscow is therefore not reassuring. It is worrying, especially for those who rely on stable markets, as it may undermine their confidence in the alliance's effectiveness.
It takes only four years to see a huge contrast. When Russia invaded Ukraine (2022), the world waited for OPEC+ to respond. As an Arab News report (1 March 2022) put it, the mood was captured perfectly. All eyes were on the next OPEC+ meeting: Brent had moved above $105 per barrel, sanctions threatened Russian exports, and the alliance was debating whether to maintain its scheduled 400,000-barrel-per-day increase. This was critical, as it was clear that even in a geopolitical crisis involving one of its two principal powers, OPEC+ remained the recognized center of oil-market decision-making.
At present, we see a different story. The present crisis is arguably more threatening to physical Middle Eastern supply, yet OPEC+ appears less commanding. There is no collective leadership shown by the group, even with a war around Iran, impaired flows through the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, reduced Red Sea security, disruption to Russian production and exports, and extreme pressure on tanker availability. Throughout the crisis, markets have seen only short virtual meetings, technical communiqués, and repeated commitments to "market stability" and "full conformity."
Story Continues