Rupee ends flat, anchored by RBI intervention in face of global strains

The Indian rupee ended little changed on Monday, wedged between pressures from a broadly firmer dollar, higher oil prices and likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, which kept the currency moored in a thin trading range.

The rupee closed at 96.2925 per dollar, barely changed from its close at 96.3150 in the previous session.

The dollar started the week on firm footing, hovering near a 17-month high on Monday. The greenback was boosted by weakness in the euro amid worries over France's fiscal situation and knocked Asian currencies between 0.1% to 0.5% lower.

Crude oil prices, meanwhile, nudged up to nearly $103 per barrel. Though Middle Eastern exports have increased, concerns about ongoing war-related disruption are keeping prices elevated, an ever-present threat to India's energy import-dependent economy.

The lingering pressures have left the rupee reliant on central bank interventions to avert testing record low levels hit in May. Persistently high levels of hedging by importers combined with reticence from exporters to enter the market have also pressured the South Asian currency.

Between January and September, importers booked $576.6 billion in forward hedges, far exceeding $305.6 billion by exporters, per clearing house data.

On trade policy, India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Monday that talks between India and the United States have reached a plateau and ‌further concessions might be difficult.

The focus is now on the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, where market participants widely expect a 25 basis point increase in benchmark rates.

"While the inflation shock is largely supply-driven, we expect the RBI to raise rates to prevent inflation expectations from de-anchoring," Deepali Bhargava, regional head of research for Asia-Pacific at ING, said in a note.

"Markets will be focused on the RBI's guidance on the extent and duration of the tightening cycle."
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