Zerodha founder and CEO Nithin Kamath flagged the divergence between the primary and secondary markets in a post on X, calling IPOs the “only bullish corner of the market right now.”
“The broader market has been steadily falling. The numbers may not fully show it, but it certainly feels like a bear market,” Kamath said.
“IPOs, on the other hand, are a full-on party. Most recent listings have done well, and you can see it in the rush of activity,” he added.
Data shared by Kamath shows that 67.2% of the 125 mainboard IPOs listed between October 2025 and September 2026 were trading above their issue prices as of October 6, 2026. Of these, 17.6% were trading 0-25% above their issue price, 18.4% were up 25-50%, 17.6% were up 50-100%, while 13.6% had gained more than 100%.
The median return for this latest cohort stood at +24.7%.
The data covers 401 mainboard IPOs across five 12-month listing cohorts. It excludes SME listings, REITs, InvITs and FPOs. Returns are measured from the issue price to the October 6, 2026 close, excluding dividends.
Recent IPOs outperform older cohortsThe only bullish corner of the market right now is IPOs.The broader market has been steadily falling. The numbers may not fully show it, but it certainly feels like a bear market. IPOs, on the other hand, are a full-on party. Most recent listings have done well, and you can see it in the rush of activity.I don't remember the last time we saw such a stark divergence between the primary and secondary markets. Strange are the times we live in.
— Nithin Kamath (@Nithin0dha) October 7, 2026
The latest 125 IPOs also stand out against the immediately preceding cohort. Of the 95 IPOs listed between October 2024 and September 2025, only 47.4% were trading above their issue prices, while the median return for the group was -9.4%.
For the October 2023-September 2024 cohort, 54.5% of the 88 IPOs were above their issue prices, with a median return of +8.6%.
Among the 49 IPOs listed between October 2022 and September 2023, 61.2% were above issue price, with the median return at +16.6%. The earliest cohort in the chart, comprising 44 IPOs listed between October 2021 and September 2022, had 59.1% of listings above issue price and a median return of +41.3%.
For the latest cohort, 32.8% of IPOs were trading below their issue prices. Of these, 20.8% were down 0-25%, 6.4% were down 25-50%, and 5.6% were down more than 50%.
Kamath also highlighted the unusual gap between the performance of newly listed stocks and the broader equity market.
“I don't remember the last time we saw such a stark divergence between the primary and secondary markets,” he said.
“Strange are the times we live in,” he added.
The comments come as Indian equities remain under pressure amid elevated oil prices, geopolitical tensions, weakening economic conditions and currency weakness.
The benchmark Nifty 50 continues to trade below the 23,000 mark. At Tuesday’s close of 22,603, the index was 3,770.2 points, or around 14.3%, below its peak of 26,373.20.
On a year-to-date basis, the Nifty 50 has declined 13.55%, based on the figures provided.
Disclosure: This article has been written by Kumar Gaurav, who is not a Sebi-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Gaurav and their ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective Sebi-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here
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