India’s bond market performed well, equities to become attractive again: RBI’s Poonam Gupta

As the US bond yields rose to their highest level in 22 years, India's bond market has also performed well in recent years, both compared to its past performance and in comparison with most other countries, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta has said.

In the RBI's September Bulletin, she said that the relative strength of the bond market is due to the fiscal commitment of the government, and the projected sustained high economic growth rates that would make the fiscal outcomes even better going forward.

Credibility of monetary policy, declining structural pressures on inflation have contributed as well.

Bonds Corner Powered By India’s bond market performed well, equities to become attractive again: RBI’s Poonam Gupta

India's bond market is exhibiting notable strength, outpacing its historical performance and standing firm against global trends. The Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India highlighted the promising fiscal commitments that are bolstering market dynamics. Meanwhile, Indian equity markets have faced challenges, partially due to rapid advancements in AI abroad.

ETMarkets Smart Talk | Rate-cut cycle over, RBI may be at cusp of rate hikes; yields could inch higher: Puneet PalGive blood, buy bonds: Countries get creative in hunt for cashIndia bonds slide for sixth week as global rout deepensIndian 10-year bond hits 4-month low on US debt rout Browse all Bonds News with
So much so, that for its orderly bond markets, the Economist has remarked that, "India's experience shows the importance of cleaning up public finances and letting central bankers fight inflation in peace".

The equity markets, on the other hand, have not tracked the same optimism, said Gupta.

"This is plausibly because of a relatively more promising AI-led story in certain other economies. While the Indian equity market witnessed an exceptional run of its own, roughly from June 2022 to September 2024, some other economies are having a better run now," she mentioned.

Eventually, the promise of the underlying real economy would reassert itself. Going by the past experiences, it is only a matter of time before Indian equities look relatively more attractive again, she said.

This brings us to the issue of India's balance of payments (BOP) and the direction of rupee. The question often asked is whether the BOP and the exchange rate are reflecting the underlying economic strengths, she noted.

India has traditionally run a small current account deficit (CAD) and a larger capital account surplus, resulting in a net positive BOP. Its CAD as percent of GDP has declined over time, bringing resilience to the BOP.

"Furthermore, the CAD levels have remained far below the levels generally considered to be prudent for emerging market economies. Net services exports and remittances remain its great structural strengths," said Gupta.

Together, they are large and resilient enough to absorb the merchandise trade deficit and keep the CAD contained at below 1 per cent of GDP, she added.
Add as a Reliable and Trusted News Source Add Now!
(You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)