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FEDS Note: Why Gold Didn't Actually Overtake Treasury Securities as the World's "Favorite" Reserve Asset
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Federal Reserve Board Economy Full text
FEDS Note: Revisiting the Forecasting Potential of Futures Prices
Alex Haag, Colin J. Hottman, and Amanda Tinkham Amid the largest global oil supply shock in history, oil futures prices moved up much less than many expected. The steep backwardation in oil futures from the Strait of…
Federal Reserve Board Economy Full text
FEDS Note: Repo Markets and the Fed’s Balance Sheet: Implications for Monetary Policy Implementation
Sriya Anbil, Alyssa Anderson, Lucy Cordes, and Romina Ruprecht As the Federal Reserve (Fed) navigates periods of balance sheet expansion and reduction, it has become increasingly important to understand how changes in…
Federal Reserve Board Economy Full text
FEDS Note: A Decade of U.S. Cross-Border Payments Efforts
Elena Falcettoni One of the goals of the Federal Reserve has always been the promotion of a safe and efficient payments system, and it consistently fosters such an environment by playing multiple, simultaneous roles…
Federal Reserve Board Economy Full text
FEDS Note: Liquidity Transformation Risks in U.S. Bank Loan and High-Yield Mutual Funds: A 2026 Update
Kenechukwu Anadu, Sean Baker, Fang Cai, Logan George, and Erik Larsson Mutual funds (MFs) and other open-ended collective investment funds engage in liquidity transformation—they offer investors daily redemptions while…
Federal Reserve Board Economy Full text
FEDS Note: Private Credit and Leveraged Loan Markets: Similarities, Differences, and Substitution
Ayelen Banegas, Sophia Castelo, Ahmet Degerli, Christine Dobridge, and Will Kennedy
Federal Reserve Board Economy Full text
FEDS Note: The Price of Bank Funding Behind Private Credit: Evidence from Business Development Companies
Sharjil Haque and Jessie Jiaxu Wang Private credit is often described as credit provided outside the banking system. In many cases, this description is accurate: private credit lenders originate loans directly to firms…
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FEDS Note: Examining the Sensitivity of Regional Banks to Macroeconomic Shocks
Faith Achugamonu, Elena Afanasyeva, Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, and Matthew P. Seay Following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), banking supervision and regulation became more stringent for largest banks, particularly…
Federal Reserve Board Economy Full text
FEDS Note: Monetary Policy Stance and Commodity Cycles in Emerging Economies
Oscar Monterroso and Diego Vilán Emerging market economies, particularly those that depend heavily on commodity exports, have long been characterized by more volatile and disruptive business-cycle dynamics than their…
Federal Reserve Board Economy Full text
FEDS Note: The AI Buildout and the Economy: Publicly Available Data to Assess AI's Impact
Paul E. Soto, Mason Thieu, and Jeffrey S. Allen This note presents publicly available indicators that can help researchers and policymakers track the evolution of the generative AI buildout and its potential impact on…
Federal Reserve Board Economy Full text
FEDS Note: Vietnam's Export Boom to the U.S.: The Role of Chinese Firms
Chris A. Avalos, Trang Hoang, and Eva Van Leemput In recent years, Vietnam has attracted considerable attention as a potential major beneficiary of the 2018-19 U.S.-China tariff increases, reflecting substantial trade…
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FEDS Note: Fifth Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar: Stablecoins, Digital Payments, and the International Role of the U.S. Dollar
Ricardo Correa, Linda Goldberg, Ritt Keerati, Juan M. Londono, and Fabiola Ravazzolo The U.S. dollar continues to occupy a central role in the global economy. It remains the most widely used currency in foreign exchange…
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FEDS Note: Technology Shocks, the AI Boom, and the U.S. Current Account
Giuseppe Fiori, Colleen Lipa, and Erik Nuenninghoff The current artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom in the United States provides a powerful boost to imports of high-technology capital goods. The AI buildout…
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FEDS Note: Do Major Technology Advancements Lead to Overinvestment?
Geng Li From the era of the Industrial Revolution, industrialized economies were blessed with a number of major technology advancements that profoundly changed production and services in essentially all industries…
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FEDS Note: How Resilient Were Emerging Market Economies Through the 2022-23 U.S. Monetary Tightening Cycle?
Shaghil Ahmed, Ozge Akinci, and Albert Queralto The cross-border spillover effects of shifts in U.S. monetary policy have long been a focus of academics and policymakers alike. A common finding in the literature is that…
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FEDS Note: A News-Based Approach to Measuring Shortages and Their Effects on the Global Economy
Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello The conflict in the Middle East has severely constrained global supplies of oil and natural gas. The conflict is also disrupting the provision of other inputs critical to global…
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FEDS Note: Recent Developments in Foreign Direct Investment into the U.S.
Cody Kallen In 2025, U.S. tariffs rose sharply, contributing to record-high trade and economic policy uncertainty. Part of the motivation for the tariffs announced in April 2025 reflects a desire to spur foreign direct…
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FEDS Note: Retail Sweep Behavior Since the Elimination of Reserve Requirements
Mary-Frances Styczynski Retail sweeps emerged in the 1990s as a way for depository institutions (DIs) to reduce the cost of satisfying federally mandated reserve requirements. Retail sweeps grew, even as the cost of…
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FEDS Note: Decomposing Hedge Funds’ U.S. Treasury Exposures
Phillip J. Monin Between 2023 and September 2025, large hedge funds' gross U.S. Treasury exposures doubled to $4.0 trillion, comprising $2.4 trillion in long exposure and $1.6 trillion in short exposure. This growth…
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