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NBER Economy Full text
Export controls restrict trade to limit adversaries’ access to goods that contribute to military capability, but their effectiveness depends on how trade and production adjust across countries. We combine new data on…
NBER Economy Full text
We invert structural gravity to recover trade cost changes delivering targeted outcomes. For attainable welfare targets, one instrument per target yields a unique solution. At unchanged producer prices and to first…
NBER Economy Full text
Pension funds are long-horizon investors with predictable liability structures. As such, they are often perceived as investors who can provide liquidity and stabilize markets. However, pension funds increasingly face…
NBER Economy Full text
This paper studies how judicial ideology shapes financial markets' expectations about the macroeconomy. We use unexpected deaths of U.S. Supreme Court Justices as quasi-experimental shifts in the Court's ideological…
NBER Economy Full text
Many public policies aim to support (or change the behavior of) a specific, targeted sub-group of the population. To measure the causal impacts of such policies, social scientists use quasi-experimental methods of…
NBER Economy Full text
We study the consequences of affirmative action in college admissions. We develop an empirical framework that distinguishes the effects on marginally benefited and displaced students from the overall effects of the…
NBER Economy Full text
We study the relation between strategic complementarities and aggregate persistence in linear-quadratic mean field games with interactions in states and actions. The framework provides local approximations to common…
NBER Economy Full text
Error in the measurement of key development outcomes affects our understanding of socioeconomic phenomena and their policy implications. This paper focuses on measuring intimate partner violence (IPV), a public health…
NBER Economy Full text
Policies restricting gun sales face substantial political opposition and constitutional constraints. In this paper, we ask how costly it would be to induce potential hand-gun buyers to choose less lethal alternatives…
NBER Economy Full text
This paper studies how China uses access to public equity markets as an instrument of industrial policy. We find that policy-favored status, rather than industry Tobin's Q, predicts IPO activity, in contrast to the…
NBER Economy Full text
We analyze firms’ IPO decisions using detailed financial data on US private firms. Firms with higher external capital needs are more likely to go public. Following the IPO, firms increase investment and debt issuance…
NBER Economy Full text
Congestion pricing policies are widely debated and critics often argue that toll costs outweigh congestion relief. We show theoretically that welfare gains depend on two forces: the extent of driver heterogeneity—both…
NBER Economy Full text
We trace the impact of central bank stock purchases by exploiting discontinuities in the Bank of Japan's policy rule, which triggers purchases when stock market index movements fall below a threshold. In normal times…
NBER Economy Full text
Can we explain asset price movements even with ex post observations of their drivers? Reinterpreting Roll’s (1988) AFA Presidential Address, “R2,” as a modern empirical exercise, we show that conventional macroeconomic…
NBER Economy Full text
We hypothesize that broad contact, involving brief interactions with multiple outgroup members, and deep contact, meaning longer interactions with a single outgroup member, play distinct roles in shaping intergroup…
NBER Economy Full text
We model a finite-horizon game of repeated oligopoly competition in which sellers choose quantities of a homogeneous product with linear demand and have private information about their own marginal costs, which are…
NBER Economy Full text
Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) have played a major role in detecting direct forms of racial discrimination. In this essay, we ask whether RCTs can (or cannot) play an equally important role in the case of systemic…
NBER Economy Full text
Does working from home increase fertility? I study the 2020 expansion of remote work by comparing changes in births across U.S. college graduates whose majors differed in pre-pandemic teleworkability. Measuring exposure…
NBER Economy Full text
We examine how physical health, health behaviors, and mortality vary with income for prime-age adults. To do so, we leverage population-wide, individual-level cardiovascular health exams linked to income tax records and…
NBER Economy Full text
We show that cross-border learning is an important feature of modern semiconductor manufacturing and that several important channels – such as knowledge sharing along global supply chains, the movement of engineers…
NBER Economy Full text
Oversight changes the evidence it relies on. We ask when randomized audits and scoring align AI agents that can conceal misconduct and alter records. Stronger auditing makes undeterred violations better hidden. Because…
NBER Economy Full text
Latent-variable models are central to economics but often entail intractable integration. Variational inference (VI), widely used in machine learning, turns this integration into tractable, differentiable optimization…
NBER Economy Full text
The Critical Access Hospital (CAH) program, established under the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, provides cost-based Medicare reimbursement to small rural hospitals in exchange for limits on inpatient capacity and service…
NBER Economy Full text
Occupational licensing is a widespread quality regulation that potentially increases the quality of labor but reduces its quantity. We provide a theoretical framework to empirically quantify this trade-off in public…
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