NBER Economy Full text
We develop a property-rights based approach for defining welfare weights in economic models of climate change. Whether there is a "right to pollute" or a "right to no pollution" is increasingly contested in…
NBER Economy Full text
We study taxation in matching environments in which both equilibrium sorting and the sharing of match surplus are endogenous. Tax reforms lead to complex adjustments in sorting and surplus sharing patterns across the…
NBER Economy Full text
Pricing firms’ environmental risk is central to ensuring that capital is efficiently allocated. We examine whether an increase in the salience of pollution information affects the beliefs and perceived valuations of…
NBER Economy Full text
When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, standard macroeconomic models and VARs predict that output, employment, and inflation should fall over the next several quarters. However, monthly-frequency professional…
NBER Economy Full text
We study optimal monetary policy in a general heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) economy. Instead of maximizing a social welfare function, the policymaker maximizes the joint surplus of all households, without…
NBER Economy Full text
This paper examines how public research and development shaped the direction of technological change during the Cold War–era Space Race and its consequences for US manufacturing. While prior research has documented the…
NBER Economy Full text
This chapter documents trends in income and inequality in Russia from the collapse of the Soviet Union through 2025, drawing on official statistics, the existing literature, and household survey microdata. It also…
NBER Economy Full text
When machines can perform a growing share of tasks, growth depends on two margins: how the task structure affects the returns to accumulating machines, and how strongly capital accumulation responds to those returns. I…
NBER Economy Full text
Affirmative action programs are often criticized because of concerns that they result in lower worker productivity and efficiency losses. We study the relative productivity of workers benefiting from an aggressive…
NBER Economy Full text
This paper analyses the evolution and drivers of the stock of global imbalances in order to assess associated vulnerabilities and potential adjustment scenarios. These imbalances have recently increased sharply, with a…
NBER Economy Full text
Beginning in the summer of 2021, the state of Connecticut launched the Learner Engagement and Attendance Program (LEAP) where home visits by school personnel were conducted with students identified as chronically absent…
NBER Economy Full text
Firms ask workers to train AI systems that will replace them. We model this with a worker who can shirk, cooperate with training, or obstruct training while maintaining productivity. Because training ends the job but…
NBER Economy Full text
Using generative AI, we extract managers’ economic expectations from over 120,000 corporate conference call transcripts. The resulting AI Economy Score predicts GDP growth, production, employment, and wages five or more…
NBER Economy Full text
Variance decompositions from regressions with worker and firm fixed effects are widely used to measure heterogeneity and sorting in linked data. Variances computed directly from estimated effects overstate heterogeneity…
NBER Economy Full text
We introduce an LLM workflow for functional form sensitivity analysis. A researcher estimates the value of an object of interest by maximizing the fit of a working model to some data. The working model assumes an…
NBER Economy Full text
We estimate the returns to specialization in medical oncology, in which subspecialists focus on specific cancer types. Using 2.2 million Medicare chemotherapy episodes from 2008–2020, we instrument for subspecialist…
NBER Economy Full text
Household energy use accounts for approximately one third of U.S. emissions. Guided by a new survey, we develop a quantitative model in which households differ in income and their desire to reduce their emissions. Our…
NBER Economy Full text
It has been widely documented that patients in the US who are associated with disadvantaged demographics receive care at lower quality nursing homes. To understand the role that selective admissions may play in…
NBER Economy Full text
Immigrant founders of US venture-backed startups exit successfully more often than native founders. Does this hold worldwide? Using career histories for 913,226 founder-firm pairs in 213 countries (1990–2026), we…
NBER Economy Full text
We study how regional specialization patterns and welfare are affected by uncertainty and economies of scale in an open economy. We use a spatial equilibrium model with sectoral economies of scale, aggregate…
NBER Economy Full text
In 2024, 315,000 H-2A temporary seasonal work visas were issued to agricultural workers in the US. The H-2A program is controversial: earnings are high, but critics argue that workers face poor working and living…
NBER Economy Full text
Whether to engage in sex and with whom are extremely consequential decisions for young women worldwide, and particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where HIV rates are high and adolescent pregnancies are common. Yet little…
NBER Economy Full text
We use Luxembourg Income Study and International Social Survey Programme microdata on 27 countries over the 1986-2019 period, augmented by policy and labor market information, to estimate the impact of family-friendly…
NBER Economy Full text
Optimal tax policy frequently prescribes different tax treatments for activities that are difficult in practice for tax administrators to distinguish, such as expenditures undertaken for business versus personal…
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