- AFP, BEIJING
A sweeping victory for Democrats in the US midterm elections on Tuesday, giving them control of the US Congress, presents an opportunity and a challenge for top rival China, particularly on Taiwan, analysts said.
The issue of Taiwan could be a “game changer,” Capital Economics chief economist Neil Shearing said.
Washington is Taipei’s most important security backer and has sold billions of dollars of arms to Taiwan that it would use to fend off a potential Chinese attack.
US and Chinese flags are displayed on a security barrier on the day of an official visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to the White House in Washington on Sept. 25.Photo: Reuters
However, US President Donald Trump threw the US stance into question in May when he said that US arms sales to Taiwan could be a bargaining chip in talks with China. His administration has since delayed for months a US$14 billion batch of weapons.
China could use the remaining two years of Trump’s presidency to increase pressure on Taiwan, particularly if Beijing “judges that Washington is distracted or that Trump would be willing to agree terms to not intervene,” Shearing wrote in a note.
Trump, who has hailed his “great friendship” with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), has so far resisted political pressure from Democrats and some Republican lawmakers to approve the arms package.
A Democrat-controlled Congress “may force Trump to resume arms sales to Taiwan next year,” said Wu Xinbo (吳心伯), dean at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.
Alternatively, for China, renewed support for Taipei from the US Congress might be “a stronger incentive for [Beijing] to play it safer with Taiwan,” SOAS China Institute director Steve Tsang (曾銳生) said.
Nevertheless, while Congress can pass bills requiring Trump to approve an arms sale, the president retains the power to veto it “or simply ignore it,” said Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.