NBER Economy Full text
We establish a reliable counterfactual for evaluating racial disparities in traffic stops using telemetric data to estimate the racial composition of motorists. We measure of motorist racial composition using telemetric…
NBER Economy Full text
The use of managed retreats, or “buyouts,” of flood-prone properties is likely to grow as an adaptation response to increasing flood risks. This paper investigates the role of race and ethnicity in buyout bargaining…
NBER Economy Full text
We estimate the effect of receiving Supplemental Security Income (SSI) in childhood on adult outcomes using multiple sources of variation. Using variation across and within two quasi-experiments, we find that the…
NBER Economy Full text
Since the 1980s, the United States has experienced a pronounced saving glut of the rich, a large accumulation of assets among the top 1% of earners. We argue that this development partly reflects a shift in the…
NBER Economy Full text
The cognitive noise hypothesis is an increasingly popular explanation for a wide range of puzzling regularities in human behavior. Using simple, familiar tools and minimal assumptions drawn from neuroscience, cognitive…
NBER Economy Full text
Transportation is a major source of greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions worldwide, with most automobile pollution coming from vehicles older than 10 years. Yet, many policies discourage the removal of older…
NBER Economy Full text
We compare verifiable and unverifiable communication in a sender–receiver setting with partially aligned preferences, where the sender knows more than what her evidence can prove. We identify a credibility–flexibility…
NBER Economy Full text
We show that investor patience shapes venture-capital (VC) investment strategies and outcomes. Through a randomized experiment with Chinese fund managers, we demonstrate that managers explicitly tailor fund duration and…
NBER Economy Full text
Ultra-poor graduation programs (UPG) reliably reduce extreme poverty among adult recipients, yet their intergenerational effects on children remain largely undocumented. We study a child-focused UPG in rural Malawi that…
NBER Economy Full text
We study age discrimination in a labor market with a job ladder, where worker productivity is revealed over time. Using data from a large Chinese recruitment platform that links job postings, applications, and employer…
NBER Economy Full text
This paper provides evidence of how the beliefs of investors who step out of the market, or “non-marginal” investors, influence asset prices. Using more than two decades of respondent-level investor surveys, we…
NBER Economy Full text
We present a new dynamic model of corporate investment in imperfectly competitive product markets that extends the neoclassical (Q) theory of capital to accommodate heterogeneous, multi-product firms and a rich hedonic…
NBER Economy Full text
Why do we have so many meetings? Few workplace features are so scorned, yet seemingly so necessary. This paper provides the first large-scale economic evidence on workplace meetings using an original survey of more than…
NBER Economy Full text
Automatic stabilizers can respond to a recession without a new policy decision, but their effects on aggregate demand may still only arrive with delay. We study the transmission lag for unemployment insurance extensions…
NBER Economy Full text
Why is war so economically costly? Our answer is that modern war lowers output not only by destroying productive factors, but also by making the surviving economy work less efficiently. Using uniquely comprehensive…
NBER Economy Full text
We study the effects of vast increases in U.S. small business program eligibility standards, which expanded larger firms' access to support for small businesses. Exploiting quasi-random variation in the timing of these…
NBER Economy Full text
How does prior information affect discrete choice? In the seminal rational inattention model of Matějka and McKay (2015), multinomial logit arises from the discrete choice of agents who are uncertain about choice…
NBER Economy Full text
Professionals routinely make consequential decisions for others without systematically observing how those decisions turn out. Whether such decisions reflect accurate forecasting or systematically distorted beliefs has…
NBER Economy Full text
Many empirical investigations of long-run relations are based on cross-section regressions in averaged or long differenced data that effectively have the time dimension of a T × N panel compressed. We analyze a class of…
NBER Economy Full text
Regression discontinuity designs have become one of the most popular research designs in empirical economics. We argue, however, that the widely used approaches to building confidence intervals in regression…
NBER Economy Full text
Government transfers vary along two design dimensions that standard models predict should not matter: whether benefits are paid in cash or kind, and whether they arrive as one-time or recurring payments. We test how…
NBER Economy Full text
We ask whether online job postings capture U.S. job vacancies, matching near-universal Burning Glass (BG) postings to the representative Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). BG converged toward JOLTS over…
NBER Economy Full text
Loan rates are usually viewed as prices that shape borrower incentives, but they can also serve another role in a principal-agent problem by determining how informative repayment is about unobservable effort inside the…
NBER Economy Full text
Human actions can alter the climate via land use. We analyze the 1930s Great Plains Shelterbelt, a large-scale forestation program across the US Midwest. The program increased precipitation and decreased temperatures…
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