NBER Economy Full text
Program impact estimates that are not statistically significant are often treated as providing little guidance for policy choice, even when economically important effects remain plausible. In such cases, the…
NBER Economy
NBER Economy
NBER Economy
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NBER Economy Full text
Multifaceted poverty Graduation programs that aim to increase income generating activities for low-income households are being rapidly adopted and scaled by nonprofit organizations and governments. This paper conducts a…
NBER Economy Full text
Advised retirees keep about two-thirds of their portfolios in equities well into old age—30 to 40 percentage points more than non-advised retirees, target-date funds, or common rules of thumb. These allocations reflect…
NBER Economy Full text
We study California's short-term lodging price transparency law (AB 537), which from July 1, 2024 required Airbnb and other providers to advertise fee-inclusive prices. Using Coarsened Exact Matching to compare Airbnb…
NBER Economy Full text
We estimate the maximal Sharpe ratio in large cross-sections of assets directly, without constructing the efficient portfolio. Covariance estimation in this setting requires regularization, which suppresses the…
NBER Economy Full text
Understanding how AI is reshaping work requires an accurate account of the tasks workers perform. Workers are often the first to see how their jobs are changing, as new responsibilities and tools often appear in…
NBER Economy Full text
Frontline state agents exercise substantial discretion over citizens’ access to public services, yet little is known about whether the attitudes and beliefs shaping this discretion can be changed among incumbent…
NBER Economy Full text
The two dimensions of unconventional monetary policy — holding the short rate at the zero-lower bound (ZLB) and quantitative easing (QE) — shifted deposit composition toward more interest-sensitive customers. The ZLB…
NBER Economy Full text
Most government transfer programs aim to target the poor. Doing so implicitly assumes that the lowest-consumption households have the highest marginal social valuation, i.e., have the highest social welfare gain from an…
NBER Economy Full text
I use AI-assisted replication to assess the empirical importance of negative weights in two-way fixed effects (TWFE) estimation, drawing on 1,346 staggered-adoption specifications from 108 economics papers. TWFE…
NBER Economy Full text
Does the compensation investors require for holding government bonds vary with their risk? We measure expected excess returns using market yields and professional forecasts of future yields, showing that they are…
NBER Economy Full text
We develop a quantifiable general-equilibrium model of village governance, motivated by India’s democratization, to study how political institutions shape public goods provision and economic development. The model…
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