Borrowing in the Shadow of China -- by Illenin O. Kondo, César Sosa-Padilla, Zachary J. Swaziek

We benefited from comments from Christoph Trebesch (discussant) and from seminar participants at NBER Summer Institute 2026, Swiss National Bank, Oxford, Universidad Nacional de Tucumán, CAF, SED 2021 and 2025, SAET 2021, and the 2021 African Meeting of the Econometric Society. We are grateful to Astghik Mkhitaryan for her work and contributions at the early stages of this project. Ken Cowles provided excellent research assistance. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, the Federal Reserve System, or the National Bureau of Economic Research.