Are Guidelines Worth Following? Decision-Making Under Incomplete Evidence -- by Jason Abaluck, Leila Agha, David C. Chan Jr

For helpful comments and suggestions on this paper, we thank Jacob Dorn, Ashvin Gandhi, Toru Kitagawa, Erzo Luttmer, Chuck Manski, Paul Novosad, Ziad Obermeyer, Alex Olssen, Stephen Ryan, Fiona Scott Morton, Sachin Shah, Advik Shreekumar, Jonathan Skinner, Doug Staiger, Mintu Turakhia, Stefan Wager, and Chris Walters. We thank Shubh Lashkary, Elliot Lee, Erick Ore Matos, Simone Pandit, Francis Peng, Jonatas Teixeira Prates, Melinda Xu, Sibo Zhou, Wyatt Zhou, and Jessie Zhu for invaluable research assistance. We are grateful to Diana Zhu for her substantial contributions to that phase of the research. We thank Daniel Singer for his clinical and institutional guidance throughout the project and for connecting us with Carl van Walraven and the Atrial Fibrillation Investigators, who generously shared the AFI database for reanalysis. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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