Limits to Arbitrage and Prediction Market Efficiency: the Case of PredictIt -- by Eric Zitzewitz

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2026, 18th Annual Feldstein Lecture, Mark Duggan, "Social Security Reform in an Era of Fiscal Deficits" Primary tabs
  • Acknowledgements and Disclosures

    I would like to thank PredictIt for sharing some of the data used in this paper and for making other data available via its API or website, as part of its mission to support academic research. Thanks also to Charles Manski, Lionel Page and Justin Wolfers for helpful comments. I have traded on PredictIt, but have no other financial relationship with them. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.


  • Citation and Citation DataCopy Citation Eric Zitzewitz, "Limits to Arbitrage and Prediction Market Efficiency: the Case of PredictIt," NBER Working Paper 35845 (2026), https://doi.org/10.3386/w35845. Copy to Clipboard Download Citation
SI 2026 Methods Lecture
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This story was reported and first published by NBER on 1 October 2026. HUE Legacy Ventures did not write it.

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