- Investing in supplier mapping, digital traceability, and better data can give companies a clearer picture of complex global supply chains than ever before.
- “Whilst traditional or solely digital methods can demonstrate intent and process, only verification provides a defensible source of truth in an increasingly enforcement-led environment,” says Rupert Hodges, Chief Strategy Officer, Oritain.
Supply chains have long relied on documents, declarations, and trust. Rupert Hodges, Chief Strategy Officer at Oritain, explains how forensic science is replacing assumptions with physical evidence of product origin, helping businesses expose fraud, satisfy regulators, and protect their reputations.
Q&A WITH RUPERT HODGES, CHIEF STRATEGY OFFICER, ORITAIN
Question: Firstly, what is broken about traditional traceability?
Rupert Hodges, Chief Strategy Officer (RH): Traditional traceability, or paper and digital trails of documentation and supplier declarations, are unreliable. It is easier than ever for businesses to misrepresent what they submit for their own commercial interests. Whilst traditional or solely digital methods can demonstrate intent and process, only verification provides a defensible source of truth in an increasingly enforcement-led environment. Brands that want to keep customers, regulators, and consumers onside need to upgrade to forensic verification processes where appropriate, which cannot be manipulated in the same ways. Investing in supplier mapping, digital traceability, and better data can give companies a clearer picture of complex global supply chains than ever before.
Question:Why should companies test products, not just paperwork?
RH: Documents can be easily manipulated, falsified, or lost. It is no longer enough to rely solely on a paper or digital trail of documentation and supplier declarations. Moreover, an item’s country of manufacture has become an increasingly weak and misleading proxy for origin assurance, as material flows, trade routes, and upstream sourcing decisions take priority over factory addresses. Relying exclusively on paper trails can create a dangerous ‘compliance illusion’ – a false sense of security that paperwork equates to physical supply chain control.
Question:What can a product’s chemical fingerprint reveal?
RH: A product’s chemical fingerprint reflects the unique environmental conditions where it was grown or produced. By comparing that fingerprint against reference data, forensic science can provide independent evidence to assess whether a product is consistent with its claimed origin.
Question:Where is origin fraud hiding in today’s supply chains?
RH: Origin fraud rarely stems from a single bad actor. Instead, it thrives in the systemic gaps within complex global supply chains. One primary vulnerability is transshipment risk, where goods pass through intermediate ports or processing hubs, creating opportunities for documentation to be altered or data to be lost before reaching the final market. Another major gap occurs when supply chain documentation is digitised after the point of origin. When paper trails or legacy records are uploaded into digital management systems without baseline verification, unverified claims are accepted as truth and carried downstream. Often, these discrepancies are unintentional, driven by complex sourcing layers. Rather than blaming suppliers, modern supply chain management relies on working with the entire chain to verify data directly at the source. These forensic verification measures can protect brands from transshipment risks whilst enabling trusted suppliers to demonstrate the value and authenticity of their goods.
Question:What happens when the product contradicts the data? What is the commercial value of knowing exactly where goods come from?
RH: When a product contradicts the data or its origin is unclear, it can expose instances of supply chain fraud, consequently leading to consumer mistrust or serious legislative concerns. Brands selling products that contradict their data not only risk being fined by regulatory bodies but might also face limited market access or missed seasons through detention. The Oritain Global Supply Chain Intelligence Report revealed that 60 percent of consumers consider ethical sourcing important when buying something and will disengage if they do not trust the brand in question. But brands can use consumer concerns to their advantage. Being able to verify that a luxury product does actually originate from its claimed origin, such as Egyptian cotton, can justify a brand selling it at a premium, directly benefitting the business.
Question:How are artificial intelligence and data science changing origin verification?
RH: Artificial intelligence (AI), more specifically machine learning (ML), is helping to scale and enhance origin verification by supporting the analysis of highly complex datasets. At Oritain, forensic science and advanced statistical modelling are at the core of our verification programmes, with ML enabling greater precision and consistency in how origin insights are interpreted. Advanced data science also helps strengthen risk intelligence, enabling more targeted, risk-based verification programmes and smarter supply chain decision-making.
Question:How is regulation raising the standard of proof?
RH: Overlapping policy, regulatory, tariff, and enforcement developments are materially changing standards for supply chain compliance. Regulators are cracking down on companies that fail to meet required standards of proof and are increasingly expecting independent, evidence-based verification of origin claims. In fiscal year 2025 (FY25) alone, whistleblower-driven False Claims Act lawsuits resulted in more than USD$6.8 billion being paid out by US companies. Similarly, companies that fail to meet forced labour frameworks risk becoming prohibited suppliers, potentially hindering their market access on a global scale. These rules are also pressuring businesses into making claims they can stand behind. Unsubstantiated claims are no longer acceptable, and those that make sweeping generalisations risk serious fines. In the EU, these can range from one to six percent of a company’s EU sales.
Question:Firstly, can forensic verification work on a global scale?
RH: Forensic verification can work on a global scale. It is already shaping the approaches of many leading global brands and suppliers. Verification-led approaches such as the Oritain Membership Programme play a part in ensuring that forensic verification works at a global scale. These are designed to help brands, retailers, manufacturers, and suppliers turn origin verification data into actionable supply chain intelligence. Not only can these schemes help brands foresee challenges they might encounter, but they can also support their compliance objectives.
Question:Finally, are you ever surprised by what your product investigations reveal?
RH: Brands themselves can often be surprised by the results. When they have invested in digital traceability and documentation, discovering prohibited materials in their supply chain can come as a shock. This is why forensic verification is so critical in providing full visibility across the entire supply chain. Brands can spend significant amounts on digital traceability, but if they do not have sight of products at their source, they have fallen at the first hurdle.
